The following is a short article co-written with Wesleyan University’s Professor Peter Rutland, who blogs about nationalism at NationalismWatch. It was drafted in early March, immediately after the 2012 Russian presidential election.
With Russia’s sixth presidential election having reached its preordained conclusion, what remains unclear is how Moscow’s already seething political opposition will respond to the prospect of six more years of Vladimir Putin.
If the protests continue, will they be met with harsh reprisals? That was the route taken in Belarus when Alexander Lukashenko won a fourth consecutive presidential term in 2010. Police intervened as soon as demonstrators assembled the night after the election, and hundreds of protesters along with seven presidential candidates were jailed. Continue reading ‘Tough Choices Facing the Russian Opposition’ »
Another of my New Books Network interviews has gone live. In this episode, I spoke with Jeffrey Mankoff, an adjunct fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, and a visiting scholar at Columbia University in New York. Mankoff recently released a second edition of his book Russian Foreign Policy: The Return of Great Power Politics (Rowman & Littlefield, 2011).
As the book’s subtitle suggests, Mankoff’s primary focus is on explaining the origins and engine of Russia’s post-Yeltsin resurgence in geopolitics, as well as exploring possible trajectories for its future development. This book is wonderfully structured, breaking down the production and execution of Russian foreign policy into chapters on its general contours, its internal influences, and Russia’s relationship with the United States, as well as its neighbors in Europe, China, and the former Soviet regions. In this interview, Mankoff and I had a particularly interesting conversation about Russian domestic interest groups and the impact of their competition on foreign policy-makers. Mankoff also applied the lessons of his book to the recent friction between Russia and the West over events in Libya and Syria. Given the byzantine nature of Russian policymaking, as well as the continuing record of disagreements and mutual confusion between Russian and Western observers about certain geopolitical hotspots, Mankoff’s book is a welcome study of the opinions and pressures that shape Russian foreign policy.
You can find the interview at NBN here.
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Yesterday, the town of Lermontov (located in Russia’s North Caucasus) experienced what some are calling “a small revolution.” As the state municipal building was preparing to close for the evening, a collection of townsfolk and former members of the city council gathered and eventually forced their way into the main lobby. Once inside, reporters accompanying the activists took turns interviewing ex-deputies and disgruntled locals. Acting head of the city’s government Viktor Vasil’ev warned protesters that they were breaking the law by illegally occupying state property. Undeterred, the former deputies announced the beginning of an indefinite hunger strike, promising to occupy Lermontov’s municipal building night and day, until their demands are met: chiefly, the cancelation of the city’s upcoming local elections, which the ex-deputies consider to be illegitimate because they were denied the right to participate. Continue reading ‘Occupy Lermontov!’ »
At the “Cabinet Lounge” on Monday, January 30th, Aleksei Navalny delivered a presentation to roughly fifty investment bankers — many of whom are gathered in Moscow this week for “The Russia Forum,” organized by Troika Dialog and Sberbank. The next day, Navalny on his blog joked that the bankers were curiously paranoid that an oppositionist victory over Putin would lead to looting wine warehouses. He added:
“Most interesting was the unofficial part [of the event], when we began to argue about a one-time compensatory tax on the results of [post-soviet] privatization.”
Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal’s “Emerging Europe” blog published an article by Ira Iosebashvili, titled “Russian Opposition Instigator Inspires Financial Crowd.” The post begins:
“Moscow’s financial community has met the most recognizable figure of Russia’s nascent opposition movement — and some became spellbound.” Continue reading ‘Navalny’s Money in the Bank’ »
It’s been several months since I first addressed the nationalist views of Aleksei Navalny, whose political prominence continues to grow by leaps and bounds. As it has throughout his public life, Navalny’s nationalism still unnerves many in the liberal democratic camp, who worry that a potentially dangerous intolerance compromises his prospects as a politician. Continue reading ‘It Ain’t Lonely at the Top: Navalny’s Tenuous Coalition’ »
The first of possibly several waves of mass demonstrations has swept Russia. Yesterday, a crowd maybe as big as one-hundred thousand people gathered in downtown Moscow to protest voter fraud in the December 4th parliamentary elections. The big question now is: where does Russia go from here? For most observers on the ground, there is an air of intense expectation. Journalist Julia Ioffe echoed the sentiments of many Western correspondents when she tweeted: “Thousands protesting in cities all over Russia. Police don’t crack down. If [the] Kremlin doesn’t hear this, they sign [their] own death certificate.” Russian activists are similarly convinced that big changes are coming. A few hours ago, Evgenia Chirikova proposed (seriously, one assumes) that Vladimir Putin should publicly debate Aleksei Navalny (who is still serving out a fifteen-day jail sentence for taking part in December 5th’s Chistye Prudy march). Continue reading ‘Ending the Snow Revolution: Road Maps & Dead Ends’ »
A few weeks ago, Marshall Poe, who runs New Books Network, offered me the opportunity to co-host NBN’s “Russia and Eurasia” channel. As I’m a great fan of the show (due largely to Sean Guillory’s fine work over the last year), I happily accepted.
So after a bit of planning, getting the equipment, and executing, my first contribution went online about an hour ago: an interview with Jarrod Tanny, Assistant Professor of History at UNC Wilmington, about his brand new book, “City of Rogues and Schnorrers: Russia’s Jews and the Myth of Old Odessa” (Indiana University Press, 2011).
You can find the interview and my brief introduction here.
I think readers of AGT will enjoy it and the interviews I have planned for the future.
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In the aftermath of last Sunday’s parliamentary elections, several large-scale opposition demonstrations are scheduled across Russia. The largest is expected to be the “Rally for Honest Elections,” planned for December 10th, Saturday afternoon, in Bolotnaia Square, not far from the Kremlin in Moscow. As I write this now, nearly 33,000 people have RSVP’d for the event via Facebook, promising one of Russia’s largest assemblies of anti-regime political forces since Vladimir Putin entered the Kremlin. Continue reading ‘Ballad of the Bloggers’ »